Cross-border 🇺🇸🇲🇽Market Update 

November 2024, Vol. XVII

Monthly cross-border updates curated with insights from our experts. 

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At Nuvocargo, we simplify U.S./MX cross-border trade, shining a light into the black box at the border for greater control and visibility. In this edition, we recap October’s highlights, including BYD’s new electric vehicle plant in Mexico, the potential impact of new tariffs proposed by former President Donald Trump, and Nuvocargo’s recognition in FreightWaves’ FreightTech 100. Looking ahead, November brings the effects of U.S. midterm elections on global trade and the early signs of recovery from the freight recession.

Read on for some of the top trends and insights on cross-border trade, curated and analyzed by Nuvocargo’s team of experts.

Enjoy!

A look back: What happened in October?

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Cross- Border 

Market Updates

Chinese auto giant BYD is expanding its global footprint by establishing a new electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing plant in Mexico, underscoring the ongoing trend of international automakers investing in the country. With Mexico’s cost-efficient manufacturing environment and strategic position for exports to North America, BYD’s plant aims to support the rising demand for EVs while strengthening Mexico’s role as an automotive production hub. This investment not only boosts Mexico’s EV sector but also enhances supply chain diversity and aligns with nearshoring trends, positioning Mexico as a key player in sustainable automotive manufacturing for the U.S. market.

This boom is especially impactful in Mexico’s northern states, where proximity to the U.S. has driven both higher FDI levels and wages, showcasing nearshoring’s potential to elevate living standards and productivity through job creation and technology transfer. However, challenges persist, with regions like Chiapas struggling to attract similar investment. Mexico also lags in research and development (R&D) spending compared to other Latin American countries, signaling an opportunity for growth. 

Looking forward: What to expect in November?

Food for Thought: Inside the US-Mexico Trade Lane

BYD moves forward with Mexico plant

The upcoming U.S. elections are anticipated to influence trade policies significantly. Changes in leadership and policy directions could reshape the priorities for U.S.-Mexico trade relations, with potential impacts on the regulatory environment for cross-border commerce. Trade-dependent industries are monitoring these developments closely, given their potential effect on tariffs, nearshoring strategies, and supply chain stability.
If Trump wins, expect significant new tariffs on imports, especially from China and North American partners, likely increasing costs and pushing countries toward alternative trade partners. A Harris victory would likely maintain current policies, supporting stable trade with Mexico and clean energy investments, though her ability to enact major reforms could be limited by Congress.

Former President Donald Trump has announced plans to implement a “universal baseline tariff” on foreign goods if he is re-elected in 2024, aiming to protect U.S. manufacturers from foreign competition. This proposed policy shift could have significant implications for USMCA trade dynamics, as it would likely introduce higher costs for Mexican exporters to the U.S., potentially disrupting well-established supply chains across the border. Mexican businesses relying on U.S.-MX trade may need to adapt quickly, as these tariffs could drive up prices and impact the nearshoring advantages Mexico has achieved in recent years.

Mexico’s Nearshoring Boom: Insights from Latinometrics and Bridge49

Notably, beer remains a leading agricultural export, accounting for 83% of imported beers in the U.S. market.

Food & Beverage Industry in Mexico: A Closer Look at Exports

Trump Announces Potential New Tariffs on Foreign Goods 

Nuvocargo was honored as one of FreightWaves’ FreightTech 100 companies for 2025, showcasing its role as an innovative leader in logistics technology. This recognition highlights our continued focus on creating seamless, tech-driven solutions for cross-border trade, bringing efficiency, visibility, and data-driven insights to U.S.-MX logistics.

Nuvocargo Recognized in FreightWaves’ FreightTech 100 

The US freight recession is showing early signs of recovery 

U.S. Elections and the Global Trade Landscape

Following a prolonged period of decreased freight volumes and rate cuts, early indicators of a recovery in the U.S. freight market are emerging. Major carriers are reporting stabilized rates and slight upticks in demand, suggesting the downturn may have bottomed out. This recovery offers a positive outlook for the cross-border trade corridor, with increased movement of goods anticipated in the coming months.

Nearshoring has become a driving force for Mexico’s economy as companies relocate production closer to North American markets, and Mexico is emerging as a top beneficiary. According to Latinometrics, nearshoring-related foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico grew by 47% from 2022 to 2023, with substantial inflows from U.S. firms seeking to reduce supply chain risks and streamline logistics. Sectors like automotive, pharmaceuticals, and electronics lead this growth, with investments in new facilities across Mexico, from EV factories in Coahuila to pharmaceutical plants near Mexico City.

As nearshoring reshapes the U.S.-MX trade corridor, shippers should consider how to maximize the benefits of this trend, from securing reliable, near-market suppliers to investing in logistics that can handle increased cross-border demand. 
Check out the full report by Latinometrics and Bridge49 here.

The food industry stands as one of Mexico’s largest sectors, valued at over one trillion pesos with a nearly 90% growth rate over the past decade. In 2023, Mexico supplied 63% of U.S. vegetable imports and 47% of fruit and nut imports, solidifying its role as a vital food supplier to the U.S. The top commodities include fresh vegetables (like tomatoes and avocados), fruits (such as berries and bananas), beer, bakery products, and spirits like tequila.

From 2000 to 2023, annual U.S. horticultural imports from Mexico (in real terms) increased more than fourfold from $3.9 billion to $19.7 billion, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of 7.3 percent. On average during that period, the United States was the destination for 91 percent of Mexico’s total annual horticultural exports.

Several key factors drive Mexico’s global food export strength:

• Diverse Agricultural Production: Mexico’s range of agricultural products aligns well with U.S. demand.
• Trade Agreements: Free trade deals facilitate Mexico’s market access.
• Competitive Workforce: A skilled, cost-effective labor force underpins production efficiency.
• Leading Exports: Processed foods, including beer and tequila, continue to top Mexico’s export list, ensuring the nation’s prominence in the U.S. and global markets.

Nuvocargo’s Opinion

For cross-border shippers, this dynamic presents both opportunities and challenges. The year-round availability of fresh produce and popular exports like beer, tequila, and snacks means there’s a steady demand from U.S. consumers, which supports consistent trade flows. However, shippers should be prepared for seasonal fluctuations, regulatory changes, and the logistics of perishable goods. Enhanced border logistics and real-time visibility are essential for minimizing delays and ensuring product quality, especially as demand grows for Mexican exports in the U.S. market.