Cross-border 🇺🇸🇲🇽Market Update
February Cross-Border Market Update, Vol. XVII
Monthly cross-border updates curated with insights from our experts.
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We welcome 2025 with January’s key developments, including Mexico’s introduction of “Plan México” to tackle trade imbalances, the Bank of Mexico signaling potential interest rate cuts to boost growth, and Mexico achieving a record-high trade surplus with the U.S. Looking ahead, February brings new dynamics, from the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s first full month in office and his proposed tariffs, to seasonal surges like Valentine’s Day flower shipments and avocado demand driven by the Super Bowl. Plus, we revisit insights from our webinar with J.P. Morgan’s Nur Cristiani on 2025 trade trends and nearshoring opportunities.
Read on for some of the top trends and insights on cross-border trade, curated and analyzed by Nuvocargo’s team of experts.
Enjoy!
A look back: What happened in January?
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Market Updates
The Bank of Mexico, in its December meeting, indicated a willingness to consider larger interest rate cuts in 2025, following a series of reductions in 2024. This monetary policy adjustment aims to support economic growth amid external challenges, including potential U.S. tariffs and a strong dollar. Analysts anticipate a possible 50 basis point cut in February, reflecting the central bank’s response to evolving economic conditions.
Looking forward: What to expect in February?
Food for Thought: Inside the US-Mexico Trade Lane
Bank of Mexico Signals Potential Rate Cuts to Boost Economic Growth
February will mark President Donald Trump’s first full month in office, and his proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada are already creating waves of uncertainty across industries reliant on cross-border trade. According to a recent CNN report, these tariffs could make goods like food, electronics, and auto parts significantly more expensive, with ripple effects across supply chains.
To address trade imbalances and external pressures, President Sheinbaum introduced the “Plan México” in January 2025. This strategy focuses on reducing Mexico’s trade deficit with China, which reached $105 billion in 2023, by substituting certain imports with domestic products and attracting investments in key sectors like automotive and aerospace. The plan also includes imposing tariffs on specific imports to protect local industries and align with U.S. trade policies.
Plan México: Sheinbaum’s Plan to Tackle Trade Imbalances and Boost Domestic Industries
Recent data indicates that Mexico maintained its position as the U.S.‘s top source of imports in 2024, achieving a record trade surplus valued at US $466.62 billion. This milestone reflects the deepening economic ties between the two nations and Mexico’s growing role in supplying goods to the U.S. market.
Mexico Hits Record-High Trade Surplus with the U.S. in 2024
Trump’s First Month in Office: Uncertainty Looms Over Cross-Border Trade
Recently, we participated in a live conversation and Q&A hosted by Bridge49 with special guest Nur Cristiani, Head of Latin America Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Together, we explored the key trends shaping U.S.-Mexico trade in 2025.
Here are the main insights from the session:
• Macroeconomic Perspectives for 2025: Post-election shifts in the U.S. are expected to influence cross-border trade, with the upcoming USMCA review and tariff proposals presenting both challenges and opportunities for regional integration.
• The Rise of Nearshoring: Mexico’s growing role in strengthening supply chains was highlighted, driven by geopolitical trends and its strategic position in North American trade.
• Bridge49 Innovation: Advances in logistics, fintech, automation, and manufacturing were highlighted, emphasizing their role in enhancing regional competitiveness.
• Regional Leadership: Public-private collaboration is essential to fostering a stable and investment-friendly economic environment.
You can watch the full recording (in Spanish) here.
Valentine’s Day Drives Seasonal Cross-Border Flower Shipments
February brings a surge in cross-border shipments of Valentine’s Day-related goods, with the U.S. importing large quantities of flowers, chocolates, and other seasonal items to meet heightened consumer demand. Mexico, a leading supplier of fresh flowers—particularly roses—plays a vital role in this market. Major producing regions, such as the State of Mexico and Puebla, significantly ramp up exports in late January and early February to meet this seasonal spike. Given the perishability of flowers and the need for just-in-time deliveries, temperature-controlled shipping and reliable cross-border logistics are essential for ensuring success during this high-demand period.
Winter produce remains a cornerstone of cross-border trade in February, with Mexico playing a vital role in supplying fresh fruits and vegetables to the U.S. Avocados, often called “green gold,” are a standout export, driven by strong U.S. consumption during the winter months. The Super Bowl in early February creates a notable surge in demand for guacamole, further boosting avocado shipments. This period, from December to February, accounts for 33% of Mexico's avocado exports to the U.S., underscoring the importance of this seasonal spike in cross-border trade.
